The climate-food security connection in Indonesia

Nusa Tenggara Timur, or East Nusa Tenggara, is a remote province located 1,200 miles from Jakarta (map). It is home to more than four million people, spread across 550 islands. The province is among the poorest in Indonesia–at least a third of its population earns below the poverty line.

Not surprisingly, NTT faces real development challenges, including periods of serious food insecurity. Since irrigation systems are virtually nonexistent, farmers here are almost wholly dependent on monsoon rains to supply water to their crops. But even in years of normal rainfall, the province can expect to distribute between 20 and 25 thousand tons of food aid to families. During El Niño years, which typically result in significantly less rainfall, the aid figure can be twice that. Rates of malnutrition, especially in children, can reach 25% during these periods.

Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society want to reduce these impacts by using seasonal climate forecasts to alert government authorities about periods when below-average rainfall is expected. Indonesia has a good system in place to respond to food insecurity, but the challenge is generally one of timing. From the moment a problem is declared to the moment the first shipments of rice and other aid is unloaded, half a year may pass. The hope is to give agencies and humanitarian organizations such as CARE Indonesia months of lead time to stock up on food supplies, jump-start their monitoring activities and set aside funds and other resources in case the food problems materialize.

We’ve organized a workshop for tomorrow in NTT’s capital, Kupang, with CARE Indonesia, Bogor Agriculture University (IPB) and the provincial food-security agency in order to share the latest research findings and discuss their potential use in food-security planning. This latter goal is critical. We can issue the best forecasts in the world, but if there’s no institutional system in place to understand and act on them, they’re essentially useless.

Tough climate

Understanding the NTT’s climate is critical if one is to issue reliable forecasts. In general, the climate of NTT is drier than that of other regions of Indonesia. The monsoon rains typically arrive in late October or early November and end in mid-March. Rainfall levels vary significantly from year to year, and from location to location.

While historical climate data is scarce for the region, we have enough evidence to believe that El Niño events are strongly associated with delayed monsoon rains, below-normal rainfall and poor harvests. These are the times to worry about food insecurity. As if this wasn’t bad enough, NTT is also the only part of Indonesia to get hit with cyclones.

The people of NTT have been coping with climate variability for centuries and as such have been practicing their own form of climate risk management. One way they do this is by taking advantage of the localized rainfall variability, says Shiv Someshwar, who runs the IRI’s Asia program. Those who can, own smaller parcels of land in different agro-ecological zones: a few hectares in lowland areas, some more a few kilometers away on the slope of a mountain and still some more on the mountain’s opposite slope. In other parts of Indonesia, where rainfall variability is less localized, farmers tend to own fewer, larger plots.

With help from our CARE, IPB and food-security agency colleagues, I hope to be able to tour a few villages near Kupang to see how people live and work. We can cite endless statistics and pin up scores of maps to characterize climate variability, but these will never be as compelling as the stories told to us by those directly affected. I’ve got my camera in one hand, my recorder in the other and plenty of empty cards. Let’s go!

[Information for this entry comes from a report on a workshop on climate risk management in Southeast Asia, as well as my many breakfast and dinner conversations with colleague and fellow traveler, Esther Conrad, who coordinates the IRI's Asia/Pacific program]

Photo: Market fruit, Jakarta. Francesco Fiondella

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