What is climate risk management?

The second installment of a three-part series we’re running over at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society web site. IRI Director-General, Stephen Zebiak, gets into more detail on defining climate risk management.

Once we’ve identified the best technologies and practices, the fourth and final step is finding the “real world” arrangements that enable their implementation. Using the example of an early-warning system for food crises, we can ask: What are the actual mechanisms to have in place for hunger relief? Who are the key decision makers to identify? What specific types of climate information do they need in order to take action and who will supply it? How do we make this sustainable?

The fact that climate risk management can be effective doesn’t make it easy. Because the process is inherently interdisciplinary, it requires a detailed understanding of complex, context-specific interactions between physical, natural and social systems. It also involves collaboration among experts who must work together on cross-disciplinary problems. Although developing the proper strategies is a complicated task, climate risk management can be applied to agricultural, water, health or any other sector, on spatial scales that range from local to global, and on time scales from near- to long-term.

Read the entire piece on the IRI web site.

Photo: Indonesia food market. Francesco Fiondella/IRI.

Managing Risk in a Changing Climate: Making the Case

In the first of a three-part series, IRI’s Director-General, Stephen Zebiak, makes the case for climate-risk management as an approach for dealing with droughts, floods, epidemics and other problems that plague society and hinder development. This approach, if applied correctly, would also be an effective adaptation strategy to climate change.

Climate shocks in the form of droughts, floods, cyclones, and related problems such as epidemics, food insecurity and infrastructure loss have been playing out throughout recorded history, but with increasing severity as populations become increasingly vulnerable. A growing body of evidence, much of it captured in the 2007-2008 Human Development Report by the United Nations, points to the direct effects of climate on economic and human development, particularly in low-income countries. Scan the headlines of recent weeks, and you’ll undoubtedly come across stories about the ongoing food crisis in Niger caused by irregular rainfall, which threatens the lives and well being of at least seven million people. You’ll see pictures from the extremely harsh winter in Mongolia, which wiped out nearly 20% of the country’s livestock, leading to food shortages and loss of livelihood for tens of thousands of families. You’ll read about how hundreds of thousands of earthquake survivors in Haiti are still living in relief camps and other temporary structures, under threat of a hurricane season forecasted to be unusually active. The ability to cope better with climate is thus a paramount issue of the present, and a potentially even greater issue in the foreseeable future. We need ‘win-win’ approaches to better manage current climate risks and to build capability to cope with the climate of the future.

The work needed to provide problem-specific information and to advance innovations in the use of such information is the science of climate risk management practice. Put simply, climate risk management is the process of climate-informed decision-making. It involves the use of strategies that reduce uncertainty through the systematic use of climate information. This work is especially challenging because it involves a complex interplay between physical, natural, and social systems and requires that practitioners engage with good science, good policy, and good practice. At present there are some organizations working to connect these disparate disciplines — but while their work has provided examples of practical ways to manage climate risk, the demand for useable knowledge and information far outstrips what can be provided.

Read the entire piece on the IRI web site.

Photo: Pétionville camp for displaced Haitians. Eric Holthaus/IRI.

The climate-food security connection in Indonesia

Nusa Tenggara Timur, or East Nusa Tenggara, is a remote province located 1,200 miles from Jakarta (map). It is home to more than four million people, spread across 550 islands. The province is among the poorest in Indonesia–at least a third of its population earns below the poverty line.

Not surprisingly, NTT faces real development challenges, including periods of serious food insecurity. Since irrigation systems are virtually nonexistent, farmers here are almost wholly dependent on monsoon rains to supply water to their crops. But even in years of normal rainfall, the province can expect to distribute between 20 and 25 thousand tons of food aid to families. During El Niño years, which typically result in significantly less rainfall, the aid figure can be twice that. Rates of malnutrition, especially in children, can reach 25% during these periods.

Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society want to reduce these impacts by using seasonal climate forecasts to alert government authorities about periods when below-average rainfall is expected. Indonesia has a good system in place to respond to food insecurity, but the challenge is generally one of timing. From the moment a problem is declared to the moment the first shipments of rice and other aid is unloaded, half a year may pass. The hope is to give agencies and humanitarian organizations such as CARE Indonesia months of lead time to stock up on food supplies, jump-start their monitoring activities and set aside funds and other resources in case the food problems materialize.

We’ve organized a workshop for tomorrow in NTT’s capital, Kupang, with CARE Indonesia, Bogor Agriculture University (IPB) and the provincial food-security agency in order to share the latest research findings and discuss their potential use in food-security planning. This latter goal is critical. We can issue the best forecasts in the world, but if there’s no institutional system in place to understand and act on them, they’re essentially useless.

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Climate information makes for smarter disaster preparedness and relief

The IRI and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have forged a partnership to help save lives from the humanitarian impacts of climate change.

The IRI is developing tailored forecasting and monitoring products to help the International Federation improve its capabilities to both respond to and prepare for disasters. The need to incorporate climate information into disaster-risk reduction and decision making is urgent, evidenced by the increasing frequency, intensity and humanitarian consequences of disasters around the world.

According to the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, which fostered the new partnership, the number of weather-related disasters each year has doubled since the early 1990s [see this report]. A changing climate coupled with changes in land use and population patterns means more people will be living in locations vulnerable to storms, droughts, floods and other climate risks. In addition to the immediate impacts on lives and livelihoods, disasters can also lead to disease outbreaks. The flood-related cholera epidemics in Senegal in 2005, for example, affected more than 30,000 people and killed nearly 500. Recently in Bangladesh, Cyclone Sidr forced millions from their homes and killed thousands. Events such as these–expected to become more frequent due to climate change–will place an increasing burden on governments and humanitarian organizations, which are responsible for mitigating impacts and saving lives.

Read more about this on the IRI features page

WSJ discusses IRI work

Tom Wright has a post about IRI on the Energy Roundup blog.

That’s because for most people, especially the world’s poorest, forewarning of short-term changes in temperatures can help them make life-or-death decisions, these scientists say. It’s also because scientists say models that predict climate can do so with accuracy only over a year or so. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, outlined a project to help farmers on the Indonesian part of Borneo island to predict up to six months ahead when dry weather is likely to cause uncontrollable bush fires. The institute aims to raise funding to pay farmers not to use slash-and-burn techniques during those peak dry periods.

Read it here.

IRI, COP13 and other acronyms

Wish I could join my crew on the Island of the Gods, but I need to tend to business at the office. But here’s what we’re up to…

Scientists from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society will be speaking at various events during this year’s Conference of the Parties in Bali, Indonesia. Most notably, the IRI and some of its Indonesian partners will be hosting a side event on Wednesday, December 5, at the Grand Hyatt Hotel. The event will focus on the challenges decision makers face in managing climate risks, and will showcase the efforts of two countries, Indonesia and the Philippines, that are making important strides on this critical issue.

“This COP is especially significant in light of this year’s IPCC findings, which signal the now urgent need to come to grips with managing climatic risks globally,” says Director-General Steve Zebiak. “The IRI will be there to share our experience in helping countries become more resilient to climate changes, and to highlight the importance of this agenda to sustainable development.”

The side event, called Managing Climate Risks for Adaptation and Mitigation:New Initiatives in Southeast Asia will analyze the broader opportunities and obstacles for tackling climate impacts in the region, and features a high-level panel that will share insights and expertise:

• Anton Apriyantono, Minister of Agriculture, Government of Indonesia
• Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Director-General of The Energy and Resources Institute (by audio conference)
• Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director, The Earth Institute at Columbia University (by audio conference)
• Stephen E. Zebiak, IRI’s Director-General

The side event will also highlight efforts of Indonesia and the Philippines, demonstrating new approaches to managing climate change risks by integrating cutting-edge climate information with agriculture, water and land management policies. Presentations by:

• Anton Apriyantono, Minister of Agriculture, Government of Indonesia, on strategies for addressing risks from climate variability and change for agriculture and food security in Indonesia
• Pacita Barba, National Water Resources Board, Philippines, on the integration of climate forecasts in decision making for usage of the Angat Reservoir for urban and agricultural needs
• Johan Kieft, CARE Indonesia, on the potential use of climate forecasts to better plan for the mitigation of destructive peatland fires in Central Kalimantan

The event will conclude with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between IRI and the Ministry of Agriculture of Indonesia to collaborate on research that advances the understanding of climate variability and change and to develop strategies for agricultural risk management in the country.

For full details, visit the IRI’s features page.

Climate Change and Development

[my latest piece for IRI]

United Nations representatives from 53 countries met at Columbia University recently to discuss the effect of climate change on development goals. The Danish Mission to the United Nations, the IRI and the Earth Institute organized the event. The IRI presented some of its experiences of helping countries become more resilient to climate variability and change.

By convening meetings such as the one held at Columbia, the Danish government is hoping to find ways to harmonize the development and adaptation agendas. In 2009, Denmark will host the Conference of the Parties (COP)–the annual meeting held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to assess progress in dealing with the issue. A key focus of this COP, according to the Danish government, will be to build agreement on what to do about climate change when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

The Danes believe, as others do, that left unabated, climate change threatens years of development and could destabilize societies. “We need to climate-proof development investments,” said Carsten Staur, Denmark’s Ambassador to the U.N. “We haven’t yet found the right approaches and sufficient resources to do so. To be effective, adaptation efforts have to be coordinated and aligned,” Staur said.

Poor countries, which have contributed least to global warming, will be the hardest hit by climate change, because of their overall greater vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity.

“In much of the developing world, adaptation to climate change should be a development priority,” wrote IRI’s Molly Hellmuth and Haresh Bhojwani in a paper they prepared for the meeting. Climate change “exacerbates inequalities, threatens poverty alleviation and the sustainable achievement of the Millennium Development Goals,” they wrote.

Read the whole piece here.

Climate Adaptation in a Development Context (IRI feature)

The IRI and the United Nations Development Programme have partnered to help bring climate risk management into the development planning process of Asian countries.”Climate, now and in the future, poses high risks as well as opportunities for the advancement of households, communities and societies,” says Shiv Someshwar, director of IRI’s Asia and Pacific Program. “Realizing the benefits requires more collaboration and cooperation between the adaptation and the development communities. Furthermore,their efforts need to be guided by the demands of those stakeholders who stand to gain or lose the most from the impacts of climate change.”In April, the two organizations held a workshop in Nepal, Managing Risks of a Changing Climate to Support Development, that convened delegates from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. They released a report about the workshop proceedings last week.To read more about this, visit here.