In the first of a three-part series, IRI’s Director-General, Stephen Zebiak, makes the case for climate-risk management as an approach for dealing with droughts, floods, epidemics and other problems that plague society and hinder development. This approach, if applied correctly, would also be an effective adaptation strategy to climate change.

Climate shocks in the form of droughts, floods, cyclones, and related problems such as epidemics, food insecurity and infrastructure loss have been playing out throughout recorded history, but with increasing severity as populations become increasingly vulnerable. A growing body of evidence, much of it captured in the 2007-2008 Human Development Report by the United Nations, points to the direct effects of climate on economic and human development, particularly in low-income countries. Scan the headlines of recent weeks, and you’ll undoubtedly come across stories about the ongoing food crisis in Niger caused by irregular rainfall, which threatens the lives and well being of at least seven million people. You’ll see pictures from the extremely harsh winter in Mongolia, which wiped out nearly 20% of the country’s livestock, leading to food shortages and loss of livelihood for tens of thousands of families. You’ll read about how hundreds of thousands of earthquake survivors in Haiti are still living in relief camps and other temporary structures, under threat of a hurricane season forecasted to be unusually active. The ability to cope better with climate is thus a paramount issue of the present, and a potentially even greater issue in the foreseeable future. We need ‘win-win’ approaches to better manage current climate risks and to build capability to cope with the climate of the future.

The work needed to provide problem-specific information and to advance innovations in the use of such information is the science of climate risk management practice. Put simply, climate risk management is the process of climate-informed decision-making. It involves the use of strategies that reduce uncertainty through the systematic use of climate information. This work is especially challenging because it involves a complex interplay between physical, natural, and social systems and requires that practitioners engage with good science, good policy, and good practice. At present there are some organizations working to connect these disparate disciplines — but while their work has provided examples of practical ways to manage climate risk, the demand for useable knowledge and information far outstrips what can be provided.

Read the entire piece is on the IRI web site.

Photo: Pétionville camp for displaced Haitians. Eric Holthaus/IRI.

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Not surprisingly, NTT faces real development challenges, including periods of serious food insecurity. Since irrigation systems are virtually nonexistent, farmers here are almost wholly dependent on monsoon rains to supply water to their crops. But even in years of normal rainfall, the province can expect to distribute between 20 and 25 thousand tons of food aid to families. During El Niño years, which typically result in significantly less rainfall, the aid figure can be twice that. Rates of malnutrition, especially in children, can reach 25% during these periods.

Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society want to reduce these impacts by using seasonal climate forecasts to alert government authorities about periods when below-average rainfall is expected. Indonesia has a good system in place to respond to food insecurity, but the challenge is generally one of timing. From the moment a problem is declared to the moment the first shipments of rice and other aid is unloaded, half a year may pass. The hope is to give agencies and humanitarian organizations such as CARE Indonesia months of lead time to stock up on food supplies, jump-start their monitoring activities and set aside funds and other resources in case the food problems materialize.

We’ve organized a workshop for tomorrow in NTT’s capital, Kupang, with CARE Indonesia, Bogor Agriculture University (IPB) and the provincial food-security agency in order to share the latest research findings and discuss their potential use in food-security planning. This latter goal is critical. We can issue the best forecasts in the world, but if there’s no institutional system in place to understand and act on them, they’re essentially useless.

Tough climate

Understanding the NTT’s climate is critical if one is to issue reliable forecasts. In general, the climate of NTT is drier than that of other regions of Indonesia. The monsoon rains typically arrive in late October or early November and end in mid-March. Rainfall levels vary significantly from year to year, and from location to location.

While historical climate data is scarce for the region, we have enough evidence to believe that El Niño events are strongly associated with delayed monsoon rains, below-normal rainfall and poor harvests. These are the times to worry about food insecurity. As if this wasn’t bad enough, NTT is also the only part of Indonesia to get hit with cyclones.

The people of NTT have been coping with climate variability for centuries and as such have been practicing their own form of climate risk management. One way they do this is by taking advantage of the localized rainfall variability, says Shiv Someshwar, who runs the IRI’s Asia program. Those who can, own smaller parcels of land in different agro-ecological zones: a few hectares in lowland areas, some more a few kilometers away on the slope of a mountain and still some more on the mountain’s opposite slope. In other parts of Indonesia, where rainfall variability is less localized, farmers tend to own fewer, larger plots.

With help from our CARE, IPB and food-security agency colleagues, I hope to be able to tour a few villages near Kupang to see how people live and work. We can cite endless statistics and pin up scores of maps to characterize climate variability, but these will never be as compelling as the stories told to us by those directly affected. I’ve got my camera in one hand, my recorder in the other and plenty of empty cards. Let’s go!

[Information for this entry comes from a report on a workshop on climate risk management in Southeast Asia, as well as my many breakfast and dinner conversations with colleague and fellow traveler, Esther Conrad, who coordinates the IRI's Asia/Pacific program]

Photo: Market fruit, Jakarta. Francesco Fiondella

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The IRI and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have forged a partnership to help save lives from the humanitarian impacts of climate change.

The IRI is developing tailored forecasting and monitoring products to help the International Federation improve its capabilities to both respond to and prepare for disasters. The need to incorporate climate information into disaster-risk reduction and decision making is urgent, evidenced by the increasing frequency, intensity and humanitarian consequences of disasters around the world.

According to the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, which fostered the new partnership, the number of weather-related disasters each year has doubled since the early 1990s [see this report]. A changing climate coupled with changes in land use and population patterns means more people will be living in locations vulnerable to storms, droughts, floods and other climate risks. In addition to the immediate impacts on lives and livelihoods, disasters can also lead to disease outbreaks. The flood-related cholera epidemics in Senegal in 2005, for example, affected more than 30,000 people and killed nearly 500. Recently in Bangladesh, Cyclone Sidr forced millions from their homes and killed thousands. Events such as these–expected to become more frequent due to climate change–will place an increasing burden on governments and humanitarian organizations, which are responsible for mitigating impacts and saving lives.

Read more about this on the IRI features page

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That’s because for most people, especially the world’s poorest, forewarning of short-term changes in temperatures can help them make life-or-death decisions, these scientists say. It’s also because scientists say models that predict climate can do so with accuracy only over a year or so. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, outlined a project to help farmers on the Indonesian part of Borneo island to predict up to six months ahead when dry weather is likely to cause uncontrollable bush fires. The institute aims to raise funding to pay farmers not to use slash-and-burn techniques during those peak dry periods.

Read it here.

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Scientists from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society will be speaking at various events during this year’s Conference of the Parties in Bali, Indonesia. Most notably, the IRI and some of its Indonesian partners will be hosting a side event on Wednesday, December 5, at the Grand Hyatt Hotel. The event will focus on the challenges decision makers face in managing climate risks, and will showcase the efforts of two countries, Indonesia and the Philippines, that are making important strides on this critical issue.

“This COP is especially significant in light of this year’s IPCC findings, which signal the now urgent need to come to grips with managing climatic risks globally,” says Director-General Steve Zebiak. “The IRI will be there to share our experience in helping countries become more resilient to climate changes, and to highlight the importance of this agenda to sustainable development.”

The side event, called Managing Climate Risks for Adaptation and Mitigation:New Initiatives in Southeast Asia will analyze the broader opportunities and obstacles for tackling climate impacts in the region, and features a high-level panel that will share insights and expertise:

• Anton Apriyantono, Minister of Agriculture, Government of Indonesia
• Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Director-General of The Energy and Resources Institute (by audio conference)
• Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director, The Earth Institute at Columbia University (by audio conference)
• Stephen E. Zebiak, IRI’s Director-General

The side event will also highlight efforts of Indonesia and the Philippines, demonstrating new approaches to managing climate change risks by integrating cutting-edge climate information with agriculture, water and land management policies. Presentations by:

• Anton Apriyantono, Minister of Agriculture, Government of Indonesia, on strategies for addressing risks from climate variability and change for agriculture and food security in Indonesia
• Pacita Barba, National Water Resources Board, Philippines, on the integration of climate forecasts in decision making for usage of the Angat Reservoir for urban and agricultural needs
• Johan Kieft, CARE Indonesia, on the potential use of climate forecasts to better plan for the mitigation of destructive peatland fires in Central Kalimantan

The event will conclude with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between IRI and the Ministry of Agriculture of Indonesia to collaborate on research that advances the understanding of climate variability and change and to develop strategies for agricultural risk management in the country.

For full details, visit the IRI’s features page.

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United Nations representatives from 53 countries met at Columbia University recently to discuss the effect of climate change on development goals. The Danish Mission to the United Nations, the IRI and the Earth Institute organized the event. The IRI presented some of its experiences of helping countries become more resilient to climate variability and change.

By convening meetings such as the one held at Columbia, the Danish government is hoping to find ways to harmonize the development and adaptation agendas. In 2009, Denmark will host the Conference of the Parties (COP)–the annual meeting held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to assess progress in dealing with the issue. A key focus of this COP, according to the Danish government, will be to build agreement on what to do about climate change when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

The Danes believe, as others do, that left unabated, climate change threatens years of development and could destabilize societies. “We need to climate-proof development investments,” said Carsten Staur, Denmark’s Ambassador to the U.N. “We haven’t yet found the right approaches and sufficient resources to do so. To be effective, adaptation efforts have to be coordinated and aligned,” Staur said.

Poor countries, which have contributed least to global warming, will be the hardest hit by climate change, because of their overall greater vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity.

“In much of the developing world, adaptation to climate change should be a development priority,” wrote IRI’s Molly Hellmuth and Haresh Bhojwani in a paper they prepared for the meeting. Climate change “exacerbates inequalities, threatens poverty alleviation and the sustainable achievement of the Millennium Development Goals,” they wrote.

Read the whole piece here.

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