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La Niña and Rainfall. For high res PDF (3.2mb)

As of mid-January, moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions continue to exist in the tropical Pacific. Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society expect these to linger, potentially causing additional shifts in rainfall patterns across many parts of the world in months to come. These shifts, combined with socioeconomic conditions and other factors, can make some parts of the world more vulnerable to impacts. However, La Niña conditions do allow the IRI and other institutions to produce more accurate seasonal forecasts and help better predict extreme drought or rainfall in some parts of the world. This enhanced predictability could help societies improve preparedness, issue early warnings and reduce any potentially negative impacts from La Niña.

“Based on current observations and on predictions from models, we see at least a 90% chance that La Niña conditions will continue through March 2011,” says IRI’s chief forecaster, Tony Barnston.

The term La Niña refers to a period of cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs as part of natural climate variability. This situation is roughly the opposite of what happens during El Niño events, when waters in this region are warmer-than-normal (see our past story on El Niño). Both are part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Because the Pacific is the largest ocean on the planet, any significant changes in average conditions there, such as those that occur during La Niña or El Niño, can have consequences for temperature, rainfall and vegetation in faraway places.

Read the rest here.

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Latest news from the IRI:

A new multimillion dollar research program by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research aims to alleviate climate-related threats to the food security, livelihoods and environment of people living in the developing world. One of the key intellectual forces behind this initiative has been the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s Jim Hansen. He’ll be leading efforts within the program to look at how managing current climate risks will help farming communities adapt to longer term climate change.

The CGIAR– a network of agricultural research centers that supports thousands of scientists in more than 100 countries– considers climate change an “immediate and unprecedented threat” to the food security of hundreds of millions of people who depend on small-scale agriculture and natural resource management. To address this threat, it has created a ten-year Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) [pronounced SEE-cafs] to explore new ways of helping vulnerable communities adjust to global changes in climate as they relate to food security. The program’s annual budget is expected to ramp up to $25 million by its fifth year.

Hansen, an expert on climate risk management for agriculture, sees the new program as a way to foster collaboration between people concerned with climate change adaptation and those concerned with development.

“Climate-related risk is a major contributor to poverty and food insecurity, and an impediment to agricultural development efforts, particularly in rain-fed farming systems in the dryer tropics,” he says. “Well-designed, well-targeted research, in the context of an international development strategy, can have a huge impact.” And with CCAFS, he will have an opportunity to shape a program of high-impact research.

Read the rest of the story here.

Photo: Francesco Fiondella

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The IRI staff developed these documents in the context of the El Niño that has developed in the equatorial Pacific, which is likely to continue evolving until early 2010. El Niño conditions occur on average once every 3-5 years, and typically alter climate patterns in many regions of the world, leading to below-normal rainfall in some regions, and above-normal in other areas. Depending on socioeconomic conditions in the affected regions, these out-of-the-ordinary rainfall patterns can often lead to droughts, floods, wildfires, food insecurity and other impacts. (in previous stories, we tackled misconceptions about El Niño as well as its impacts on health.)

Current Rainfall Conditions and El Nino Teleconnections helps assess whether current rainfall conditions are consistent with anomalous–or abnormal–rainfall patterns typical of El Niño years, with a focus on developing countries. This information can help decision makers determine which areas have been hit hardest in recent months. The maps and graphs in this document were prepared using IRI’s Data Library, a powerful and freely accessible repository of online data and analytical tools that allows users to view, manipulate and download more than 400 climate-related data sets through a standard web browser.

Overview of Current Socioeconomic and of Upcoming Seasonal Precipitation Odds provides maps that show the increase in odds that many developing countries have in receiving below-or above-normal rainfall in upcoming seasons, based on an analysis of past El Niño years. Importantly, the report also provides an overview of current socioeconomic conditions, such as dependence on agriculture, prevalence of malnutrition and political stability, for affected countries.

These documents are part of efforts by IRI researchers to inform policy making, mitigate negative impacts, and help make El Niño years less costly in terms of life and property. For a full set of El Niño related resources, please visit IRI’s ENSO page.

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