Forecasts can play an invaluable role when used properly in helping humanitarian agencies and governments plan for and prevent disasters, according to the latest Climate and Society publication launched by the IRI and the American Red Cross last week in Washington D.C.

Climate and weather disasters, from the massive floods in Pakistan, Australia and Colombia, to the devastating drought in Niger, have claimed thousands of lives and caused billions of dollars in damages in the last year. According to statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, these types of disasters have risen significantly in the last few decades. Scientists expect changes in climate will make extreme events more frequent and intense in the future.

Governments and humanitarian organizations, such as the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the World Food Programme (WFP) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are placing greater emphasis on trying to prevent and minimize the impact of disasters by making earlier and better informed decisions ahead of time. The new report, called A Better Climate for Disaster Risk Management, is the latest in the IRI’s Climate and Society series. The IRI published the report in partnership with OCHA, IFRC, WFP, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“This is an important report that shows how scientists and practictioners can come together to describe a better recipe for meeting enormous global problems related to climate and the growth of natural disasters,” said Jan Egeland during the launch event. Egeland is the Executive Director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and co-chair of the High-Level Taskforce for the Global Framework for Climate Services. He is also on the IRI’s Board of the Directors. “In my view, far too little is being invested in disaster risk reduction and far too little in climate services,” he said. Watch interviews of Jan Egeland and Madeleen Helmer, who is the Director of Policies and Communication at the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre.

Read the full news here: http://bit.ly/kr9ALl

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La Niña and Rainfall. For high res PDF (3.2mb)

As of mid-January, moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions continue to exist in the tropical Pacific. Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society expect these to linger, potentially causing additional shifts in rainfall patterns across many parts of the world in months to come. These shifts, combined with socioeconomic conditions and other factors, can make some parts of the world more vulnerable to impacts. However, La Niña conditions do allow the IRI and other institutions to produce more accurate seasonal forecasts and help better predict extreme drought or rainfall in some parts of the world. This enhanced predictability could help societies improve preparedness, issue early warnings and reduce any potentially negative impacts from La Niña.

“Based on current observations and on predictions from models, we see at least a 90% chance that La Niña conditions will continue through March 2011,” says IRI’s chief forecaster, Tony Barnston.

The term La Niña refers to a period of cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs as part of natural climate variability. This situation is roughly the opposite of what happens during El Niño events, when waters in this region are warmer-than-normal (see our past story on El Niño). Both are part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Because the Pacific is the largest ocean on the planet, any significant changes in average conditions there, such as those that occur during La Niña or El Niño, can have consequences for temperature, rainfall and vegetation in faraway places.

Read the rest here.

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Using Climate and Weather Forecasts to Improve Humanitarian Decision Making: A Partnership to Save Lives from IRI on Vimeo.

Our posse put together a brief video that highlights the partnership between the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. We pulled it to together in record time for COP 15. I’m lucky to be able to work with a talented group- thanks Jason, Lisette and Michelle!

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I wrote a brief story about the news on the IRI home page.

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Torrential rains lashed West and Central African countries this rainy season, setting off flooding and causing considerable damage. On the evening of June 26th alone, nearly 200 millimeters of rain fell on the villages of Malem Hoddar and Malem Thierigne in eastern Senegal. The ensuing flash floods killed at least one person, displaced dozens of families and destroyed hundreds of homes and livestock. As usual, the regional Red Cross office in Dakar mobilized its vast network of donors and volunteers to respond to this and other events. But this season, the organization also did something fundamentally different in its operations.

“It’s a revolution,” says Pablo Suarez, Associate Program Director at the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center. “Not only was this the first time a particular zone in West Africa used a particular forecast, it was the first time in the history of the Red Cross/Red Crescent movement that science-based information about something likely to happen was used to ask for aid,” he says.

A key player in this transformation was an IRI intern and Climate and Society masters student named Arame Tall. In early June, Tall went to work with the Disaster Management Unit of the Red Cross office for West and Central Africa (IFRC-WCAZ), based in Dakar, to find ways to incorporate forecasts and other climate information into Red Cross decision making.

Halfway across the globe, Tall’s classmates, Sarah Abdelrahim and Lisette Braman, were on a similar mission in Panama, working with forecasters at the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC).

The internships were the latest example of the ongoing, expanding partnership between the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and the IRI.

Complete story on the IRI features page.

Photo: Courtesy IFRC

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How does La Niña—a cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean—affect plant growth on the other side of the globe in Africa? La Niña occurs when strong trade winds blow across the Pacific Ocean. The winds push sun-warmed surface water west towards Australia. Cool water rises to replace the surface water in the east. As a result, the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal in the east off South America and warmer in the west off Australia. Warm, moist air rises over the pool of warm water in the western Pacific, where it generates abundant rain in eastern Australia and Indonesia. The rising air travels east in the upper atmosphere, drops as cool, dry air over the eastern Pacific, and then blows west as the strong trade winds that drive La Niña.

Click for additional excerpt…

This circulation pattern is so large that it influences circulation the world over. Echoing the circulation over the Pacific, an identical pattern drives wind and rain in the Indian Ocean. Warm, moist air rises in the west, while cool, dry air sinks in the east. The effects of the Indian Ocean circulation pattern are evident in these images. The warm, moist air dropped heavy rain over southern Africa, where plants responded with gusto.

Reason I start with this is that for the last few months the IRI team has been forecasting a strong-to-moderate continuation of the phenomenon. This image, and one of Australia, also featured in NASA’s story, helps us to understand the real world effects of teleconnections. In Africa at least, the effects aren’t limited to greener landscapes. The increased chance of rains worried the World Health Organization enough to issue an alert in January for higher-than-normal number of malaria outbreaks in the region. You can read more about climate and malaria here.

Anyway, the briefing is starting. Let’s see what Tony and the gang have for us this month….

Brad starts it off. Wants to talk a bit about how difficult it is to communicate science topics, as they relate to climate.

Ecuador has been flooding, but it is it La Niña related? How about the southwest U.S., where there has been above average rainfall as well?

We don’t usually associate these with La Niña. And yet, for example, in a recent situation report issued by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the first line says

Due the La Nina phenomenon, over the past weeks, floods in Ecuador have increased, affecting 11 provinces or 50% of the territory.

Yowsa. This isn’t a very accurate statement. El Niño is usually responsible for such flooding. So he did a little back-of-the-envelope calculation. Brad looked at the past 50 years to see when it has been wet in this area and how this coincided with ENSO/La Niña. He found nine La Niña events that showed dryness in this region, and five that showed above average rains. So the current situation isn’t really that far from the norm in terms of the last half century.

Another story talks about looming drought in East Africa. So he looked at the climate outlook forum results from the region, and saw that the forecast showed predominantly near normal-conditions for the next three months (MAM). To take it a little further, we know the forecast skill is quite high for this region for OND. But for MAM, it’s not so good. So it seems a bit of a stretch to be making headlines like this.

Judy was at the COF where the forecast was given. She says the scientists didn’t say anything about drought in the region. But there was a large number of press present. In their minds, the yellow on the map meant very dry, very hot. Green means wet, lush. And that’s the message they took home. So it’s a problem of graphical interpretation, it’s a problem for us who provide the climate information, she says.

Now Tony steps up to the mic. His first slide says it all. “Moderate/Strong La Niña begins to weaken”.

La Niña is causing enhanced probability for below normal number of tropical cyclones in the northeast Pacific.

Visit the IRI’s net assessment page for the full spectrum of forecasts.

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Bear with me folks, I’m sure my speed writing will improve in time! Here goes…

Michael Bell starts with an overview for January…

• By Jan 2008 we saw a moderate La Niña event compared to past events.
• Negative SST anomalies in the west and central Pacific have strengthened but weakened in the eastern Pacific.
• Surface air temperature-in January very strong cold anomaly in central and southwest Asia. Some of these are in the lowest 10% of the climatological distribution for the regions. For example, the publicized cold snap in Afghanistan has resulted in 882 deaths and 130,000 livestock deaths as of Feb 14th. Also a rise in acute respiratory infections. We also see a pretty strong warm anomaly over eastern Canada, extending into northeast U.S.
• Precipitation anomalies- In indian Ocean we now see a strong negative anomaly whereas in December it was positive.

(He shows a cool animated graphic of outgoing longwave radiation.)

• On to precipitation teleconnections. How does it compare to patterns we normally associate with La Niña? In South America, we see below normal precipitation anomalies. Above normal in southern Africa, a hint of below normal in East Africa. Australia we see above normal precipitation in the east, drier in the west. In North America, we see dry conditions in southeastern U.S. We don’t see much going on in northern South America, where there’s usually a strong wet signal.

Now Tony with the forecasts…his title is “Moderate-Strong La Niña continue”

• Monthly average is -1.8 for Nino 3.4, which is strong according to NOAA’s definition.
• Last three months we see La Niña expanding to the west quite strongly. Very canonical looking pattern.
• This La Niña is on par strength-wise with those of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but not as strong as the 1988-89 one.
• Instead of seeing enhanced trade winds, we see winds radiating outward from the cold anomalies.
• There’s also a slug of deeper warmer water coming in from the west. Could this mean the end of La Niña? Not sure, because we also see a reinforcement of the cold anomalies in the east.
• Shuhua shows us that most of the modes showing strong-to-moderate La Niña for next few seasons.
• The probabilistic forecast for February shows a 95% chance for La Niña for the February-March-April season and by the middle of the year (June-July-August), we’re looking at a 45% chance for La Niña, 45% for neutral and a 10% chance for an El Nino.
• We see a typical La Niña signature in the seasonal climate forecast: dry in southeast Asia, slightly wet in northeastern Brazil, dry in southern U.S., dry in northeast Africa and west Asia.
• For precipitation forecasts, we start to see an above normal Sahel precipitation pattern for JJA season. So we see somewhat of a La Niña condition climate persisting into the next ENSO cycle.
• We also see a strong above-normal signal for temperatures in the southwestern U.S. that extends into the summer months.

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La Niña conditions continue in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exist from the west coast of South America to west of the dateline. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, there is a 96% probability of maintaining La Niña conditions over the coming season.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ccean, and thus the opposite of El Niño, which is defined by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the same region.

IRI also has temperature and precipitation forecasts here.

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October marks the tenth anniversary of IRI’s monthly net assessment forecasts, which are a series of freely available maps that show temperature and rainfall predictions for every region of the world.

The IRI Forecast group looks back on the evolution of this popular service, and shares a few of its favorite anecdotes from the past ten years. But first, a bit about what the IRI forecasts are all about.

On the third Thursday of each month, IRI releases a series of regional and global maps that show the probability of any particular area having above-normal, near-normal or below-normal temperatures and rainfall in a three-month period. The forecasts extend six months into the future.

In October, for example, users can view the forecasts for the November-December-January, December-January-February, January-February-March, and February-March-April periods. Of course, the further away from the current month one gets, the less confident the forecast.

Still, it’s important to go out six months because many of IRI’s forecast users need a long lead time to take action, says Tony Barnston, who runs the forecast operations.

“During La Niña, for example, there is a greater likelihood of above average rainfall in Botswana, which could pose an increased threat to epidemic malaria. Several months of lead time provide a needed margin of safety in planning mitigative action such as spraying or immunization,” he says. Moreover, there are some situations where forecasts can still have fairly good confidence at longer lead times. “For example, an El Niño-Southern Oscillation episode that has developed by August is very likely to still be occurring in December and January,” says Barnston.

The IRI produces its net assessments by using current and forecast sea-surface temperature data to drive model-based predictions of how the atmosphere will change during the next several months. But the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and small changes in current conditions can result in big differences in the seasonal patterns that models predict, so a single prediction doesn’t tell the whole story. Instead, the IRI runs multiple models numerous times to get its best estimate of the upcoming season’s mean climate.

Read the rest of this story here.

Visit the Net Assessments main page, to sign up to receive monthly email alerts when new forecasts are posted, access ten years of archives, a tutorial on forecasts and other resources.

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