In areas where Paul didn’t have appropriate photos to tie in with what he was saying, we went to outside sources, including Flickr. NGOs and universities also usually make many images freely available. Click on the image to view the slideshow. Hope you enjoy, and as always, feedback is appreciated.

©2010 autogeno.us. All Rights Reserved.

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• Agricultural water management and climate risk (0)

Everything runs smoothly in years of normal rainfall. But when the region gets below-normal rainfall-as is typically the case during an El Niño–the situation gets contentious.Angat’s water allocations, as well as those of reservoirs throughout much of the world, are guided by upper and lower ‘rule curves’, or thresholds. When the water level in the reservoir is above the upper rule curve, there is generally less tension. The reservoir meets both the domestic water supply and irrigation demands and hydropower can be generated. If the water level falls somewhere between the two thresholds, domestic water and irrigation needs can be met, but power generation is limited. But when the level drops below the lower threshold, trouble starts to brew. In the case of Angat, domestic water needs are always met first, and irrigation water is released only if the water level is above 180 meters, the reservoir’s minimum operating level.

In 1997 and 1998, for example, the reservoir had to stop releasing irrigation water because of low levels. Crops withered, farmers fumed. The magnitude and duration of the cutoff could have been minimized, however.

The problem with most rule curves is that they are static and very conservative. They’re usually based on long-term historical averages, without taking into consideration climate variability and seasonal forecasts.

The IRI has worked with a number of government agencies in the Philippines over the last five years to develop a reservoir model for Angat that integrates seasonal climate forecasts into the current water management strategy. Why is this important? Our simulations have shown that integrating forecasts into the decision-making process not only reduces the risk of over-allocating during dry years, but also maximizes agricultural and hydropower production during the wet years, and hopefully avoid unnecessary hardships, such as the reneging of promised irrigation water after farmers have already committed to planting.

Of course, having a great model is only part of the solution. The water allocation process for Angat is extremely complex and notoriously political. I’ll be learning and writing more about this process as I meet with representatives from all sides of the issue in the next few days.

[Note: source material for this entry comes from IRI reports and other documents, most of which can be found on the institution's Asia and Water pages.]

Photo: Water meter, Intramuros, Manila. Francesco Fiondella

©2010 autogeno.us. All Rights Reserved.

• Agricultural water management and climate risk (0)
• The climate-food security connection in Indonesia (1)

Feasible investments in agricultural water management are likely to bring the greatest livelihood benefit to the rural poor of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia if they are part of a comprehensive approach to managing climate risk, according to a new report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

“Despite the known impacts of current climate risk and growing concern about future climate change, climate risk management remains conspicuously absent from many analyses and regional development strategies,” write Casey Brown and James Hansen, the authors of the report, called Agricultural Water Management and Climate Risk (download it here). The report was commissioned by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and will help guide the foundation’s investment strategy in agricultural and water development in the face of climate variability.

“We need to take a more holistic view of the risks that farmers face. We’ve found that conventional agricultural water management in combination with other climate risk management strategies can be a much more powerful engine of development than just the water management alone,” said Casey Brown, who leads IRI’s Water program.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate many development challenges in Africa and South Asia, but in ways that can only be partially anticipated. A growing body of evidence links climate-based water variability to poor economic growth in developing countries. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa agriculture accounts for 70% of employment and 35% of the region’s gross domestic product. Of the 183 million hectares of agricultural land there, only about 9 million are under some form of water management–mostly small-scale approaches, such as irrigation systems and farm ponds. Most farmers depend solely on rainwater to grow their crops.

Future efforts to increase agricultural productivity in the region will most likely center on more of these small-scale water management and storage strategies, note Brown and Hansen. While these provide mitigation of slight or moderate departures from normal rainfall, they are less capable of managing climate extremes such as droughts and floods, which threaten to reverse years of development gains.

The authors recommend that a strategy for investing in agricultural water management should include a multipronged approach to dealing with the full range of climate variability.

The authors propose three specific areas of investment that are timely, feasible and target a different layer of risk:

• Don’t assume climate is static. Develop a climate-informed investment strategy for water management.
• Support rural climate information services. Invest in climate data sets, work with national meteorological services to produce tailored seasonal forecasts, train employees of agriculture extension services and nongovernmental organizations to communicate climate information and risk, etc.
• Create integrated early warning systems. These support more timely and better coordinated response to climatic shocks such as droughts and floods that exceed the coping capacity of rural communities.

©2010 autogeno.us. All Rights Reserved.

• Water Demand in the Philippines (0)
• IRI’s work to benefit farmers in India (0)